Right now USDJPY hovering around 154, after dropping spectacularly from 162. A 5%+ drop in a matter of 2 weeks.
Got pretty scared since each % is a USD500 unrealized loss which means I’ve lost USD2500 in 2 weeks just from my carry-trades.
Nonetheless here are my observations from the information I gathered:
Just heard a podcast between Mark Howards and a chess master talking about investing in terms of chess.
In both, you have to make sacrifices in order to be a good player.
Starting this post in July 2024 to keep track of my US equity investment and thought process.
Keep track of a list of DCA buy targets for myself
With my long-term investment I’d like to not move around too much, but I have been this past week and I want to write a little update here.
There are some big volatility going on and I’m probably over-reacting just like the market is.
Making this the post to keep track of my outlook on the JP equity market as time goes on.
It’d be a great learning for myself to look back and see how my thought process changes and also be more disciplined.
Also cool to see whether my outlooks are right or wrong in hindsight later.
I figure I need to make a continuously updated post on USD.JPY too, with such a heavy carry-trade position … and a huge shift in the past few days.
So here it is and I’ll copy some main points from previous post in here first.
So at the drop last Friday (12/7, thurs in the U.S.), the interesting thing is the small and mid caps actually rose. By a lot.
RUT was +3.6% while NDX was -1.6%, so that was a super clear sign things are “rotating”.
Why and what’s my next move?
So I thought I was very clear about the difference between investing and trading … turned out I was wrong.
I saw from a technical standpoint that both US and JP market might have a big run up, so I added positions to both.
But after a huge drop yesterday I got scared and cut some positions – which is OK as a trade, but the sizing was perhaps a bit too big.
So last night the CPI data came out – lower than expectation.
Not even that low, but the Sept rate cut probability rose from 70% to 90%. 10-year rates dropped 2% in a matter of hours.
USD.JPY dropped 2% and the market dropped 2% as well. JP market dropped 1.5% as of 9:15 this morning.