Holy crap what a great month.

The bet on crypto finally is paying off, and gold didnt do too well but the whole Bitcoin/Tesla jump covered it and more.

Current Portfolio:

HKD/USD cash: 8.85% (12.93%)

USD ST bonds: 0% (12.51%)

USD stocks: 18.91% (15.87%)

JPY stocks: 13.67% (14.36%)

Bitcoin (USD): 12.33% (7.55%)

Gold (USD): 45.16% (37.17%)

YEN cash: 15.83% (15.62%)

YEN shorts: -14.74% (-16.01%)

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Biggest change is crypto here for sure and a lot of the rise in % is from the appreciation.

Although as I’ve dived deeper into bitcoin and learned more, my confidence in it has increased and I think I won’t be trimming down at 12% just yet, might even add just a tad more. Already written about that in an earlier post though.

US Equity

Added some more defensive equity like BRK.B and COST.

The gold holdings is a bit too heavy and right now defensive equity actually look less volatile and a slight rebalance here should be good.

Looking to add more to around 20% probably.

BTW Tesla went crazy after trump’s victory. Pretty big gain there, but anyway staying put – not adding or trimming for now.

With the new era unfolding, I want to add more Tesla but don’t want to chase up at the moment. Not sure if I can get in during a dip but let’s see.

JP Equity

same old pretty much, also staying put here.

Haven’t gotten anything from it almost the entire year, but thats how it goes – right now it’s bitcoin’s turn. Hopefully next year it’s JP stock’s turn.

Gold

So kind of a roller coaster ride with gold this month.

Dropping as much as 8% at one point, and with my holdings that means an HKD60-70k loss.

Fortunately it recovered a bit and now down ~4.5% for the month.

And that made me rethink my super heavy gold holdings now.

Not going to go back to USD or JPY fiat cash, but maybe a bit more US defensive stocks, which I’ve been buying toward the end of this month like BRK.B and COST. Also added a little UTES.

Crypto

So wow what a crazy month. from 70k to almost 100k, 33% increase.

Calmed a bit after hitting 99k and now it’s been range bounded for a week around 95k.

I would expect it to break through 100k soon though and would definitely buy any dip in the 80k-90k range.

Thinking if I should keep the weight at 12% or maybe increase it to up to 15%. Maybe increase it slowly.

Anyways don’t really want to chase the bull for now so let’s see if there would be a breather around 80-90k or if the increase could take me to 13-14%+ without additional purchases.

In any case seems like I might not be doing any trimming this bull run … unless maybe MSTR goes too crazy, say like $1000+.

Previously I’ve decided to keep bitcoin around 5-10% as I’ve started investing earlier this year.

The logic and timing might be flawed, but I’ve decided to increase that to at least 10-15%, maybe up to 20% max now.

(Edit – as of 25/11/2024 I am keeping it around 10-14%, since MSTR is leveraged bitcoin and is even more volatile)

I want to make sure I am doing it with sound logic so I am writing a post here to keep track of my thought on that.

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So as Trump wins, the market is moving accordingly – the obvious narratives are, more spending, more debt, and higher inflation.

Therefore, long term interest rate spiked up, and the DXY spiked up as well, from the expectation of higher inflation and the Fed raising rates.

But something kind of doesn’t add up. I will try to summarize in this post.

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I’ve already written about the USD and in general fiat debasement in the “gold” post, but I want to expand here.

USD debasement is happening at a very accelerated rate, probably faster than I previously thought.

Hyperinflation I thought would be impossible with USD, but now I am not so sure.

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Up a lot during the month, trimmed a bit toward the end but still end up major positive.

Mainly from the gain in gold prices.

I’ve already written other posts about gold, can see the big shift I have here with the gold investment.

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I want to eventually start publishing content about investing and maybe start a new business venture there.

Currently my ideal is like ah ju, talking about basic investing concepts and economic trends to people who want to increase their wealth, work less, achieve freedom.

So I’ll start putting down my ideas with posts like this one as well to keep track of my ideas.

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This is an extension of the post where I was writing about doing a gold-yen carry trade.

It’s an important trade and especially getting burned by the USDJPY carry trade, I am determined to really think through this one.

And the more I think about it, I’ve come to an entire paradigm shift …

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Alright so I’ve realized a new trade that I want to start making.

Which is – borrowing yen around ~1.5%/yr and buying gold with it.

Getting burned by the yen / US-treasury carry, I am a bit unsure about if there are any pitfalls I missed, but let me write the post to consolidate my logic.

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Started out kind of bad but like everything else, turned around towards the end of the month.

Probably more volatility and flatness until the election. Then maybe another bull market.

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Alright so the US just announced at 50bps cut this week.

It wasn’t completely unexpected, but along with the narratives I’ve been hearing and my analysis, I have a decently big strategy shift I want to make now.

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