Holy crap what a great month.
The bet on crypto finally is paying off, and gold didnt do too well but the whole Bitcoin/Tesla jump covered it and more.
Author Archives: lytstephen
Why I’ve decided to increase my Bitcoin allocation
Previously I’ve decided to keep bitcoin around 5-10% as I’ve started investing earlier this year.
The logic and timing might be flawed, but I’ve decided to increase that to at least 10-15%, maybe up to 20% max now.
(Edit – as of 25/11/2024 I am keeping it around 10-14%, since MSTR is leveraged bitcoin and is even more volatile)
I want to make sure I am doing it with sound logic so I am writing a post here to keep track of my thought on that.
relationship between US debt, inflation, and interest rate?
So as Trump wins, the market is moving accordingly – the obvious narratives are, more spending, more debt, and higher inflation.
Therefore, long term interest rate spiked up, and the DXY spiked up as well, from the expectation of higher inflation and the Fed raising rates.
But something kind of doesn’t add up. I will try to summarize in this post.
the acceleration of USD debasement, and strategy to take
I’ve already written about the USD and in general fiat debasement in the “gold” post, but I want to expand here.
USD debasement is happening at a very accelerated rate, probably faster than I previously thought.
Hyperinflation I thought would be impossible with USD, but now I am not so sure.
Investment 20241101
Up a lot during the month, trimmed a bit toward the end but still end up major positive.
Mainly from the gain in gold prices.
I’ve already written other posts about gold, can see the big shift I have here with the gold investment.
Why a saver must be an investor
I want to eventually start publishing content about investing and maybe start a new business venture there.
Currently my ideal is like ah ju, talking about basic investing concepts and economic trends to people who want to increase their wealth, work less, achieve freedom.
So I’ll start putting down my ideas with posts like this one as well to keep track of my ideas.
The Paradigm Shift with GOLD
This is an extension of the post where I was writing about doing a gold-yen carry trade.
It’s an important trade and especially getting burned by the USDJPY carry trade, I am determined to really think through this one.
And the more I think about it, I’ve come to an entire paradigm shift …
Yen carry trade with GOLD
Alright so I’ve realized a new trade that I want to start making.
Which is – borrowing yen around ~1.5%/yr and buying gold with it.
Getting burned by the yen / US-treasury carry, I am a bit unsure about if there are any pitfalls I missed, but let me write the post to consolidate my logic.
Investment 20241001
Started out kind of bad but like everything else, turned around towards the end of the month.
Probably more volatility and flatness until the election. Then maybe another bull market.
US rate drop, my new outlook and strategy
Alright so the US just announced at 50bps cut this week.
It wasn’t completely unexpected, but along with the narratives I’ve been hearing and my analysis, I have a decently big strategy shift I want to make now.