Recap back 2.5 months ago in Nov2025, my guess was:
- probably 80k bottom, but open to possibility of 60-70k
- 2026 not a bear market
- recovery to ATH by Feb-May 2026
Let’s review the predictions and gather the current thoughts at this point.
Author Archives: lytstephen
Investment 20260201
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$+345,000
Phew what a roller coaster month to say the least!
Everything is moving up and down … well with BTC just down.
Anyway all in all still very nice return for the month. Feb is having a bad start but somehow I am still kind of confident it’d be an up month.
Adding JP stocks again + rebalancing with less BTC
So I was positioning the portfolio to have more BTC exposure than stocks, and this past month I’ve decided to keep them equal weight.
And in the process I also added JP stocks into the portfolio so I want to make a post to outline my thought process on that.
2026 General Investment Thesis and Themes
I realized I have developed a wider range of thesis for my investments and it’s probably a good idea to keep track of them by writing it out.
And my thinking would probably change over time too so it would be interesting to look back and see how it has evolved.
Investment 20260101
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-21,000
Was up >$200k due to a sharp rise in gold, but had since given back all of it and ended the month near zero.
Still made gains in gold but had some losses with BTC and stocks as well, overall not a great month for risk assets. No Santa rally.
The macro environment is still favoring a bull market though so I am not too concerned. Let’s see if Jan can be an up month.
2025 Investment year in review
So I’ve been doing year in review for business+life, but for investment this would be the first one.
Anyway let me review the kind of thoughts and predictions I had at the beginning of the year, and how things have played out.
Predictions within a 1-year timeframe is near impossible anyway but it’s still a fun activity, plus it’s useful to try to learn from history.
Investment 20251201
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-474000
Needless to say, a terrible month. Basically a mini-bear market for crypto and not great for stocks.
The main loss were from BTC and MSTR, -600k+ for the month. Stocks slightly down, and gold was up.
As mentioned in another post though I think this is a temporary correction and I expect a full recovery quickly.
202511 – the strange BTC/MSTR bear market
It’s Nov 21 2025 now and BTC is at 86k, MSTR around $177.
BTC was -30% from its ATH of 126k less than 2 months ago in Sept.
MSTR’s ATH of $430 was made earlier in July, and now -60% 4 months later.
The strangest thing is, there isn’t too much bad news … in fact pretty much all headwind so far, outlined in my bull case post a couple months ago.
So what is going on?
Investment 20251101
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$108,000
Up for the month, but don’t really have that “up” feel because fell quite a bit from beginning of the month.
Gold exploded up to $4300+ but pulled back to around $4000 level. Stocks did quite okay.
Bitcoin hit ATH but quickly pulled back to 105-115k consolidation range. MSTR is in the dumpster so a lot of losses there.
USDJPY ran up quite a bit too though so all in all a slightly positive month.
Thoughts on Extreme Greed – recent gold price surge
I’ve been using the fear/greed gauge to sort of give myself an indication of overbought and oversold conditions.
And while very useful, Gold has basically shot up against gravity and broke right through $4000 as of today.
During this epic run up, it’s been in “extreme greed” level for a pretty long time, and I want to jot down my thoughts on this one.