Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-58,000

So this was a weird month for sure.

The market is rallying hard, but I am mostly left behind.

QQQ outperformed GRNY and Mag7, while SHLD and NLR actually declined.

The Japanese stocks I held also declined while the Nikkei went the opposite direction soaring.

Probably the biggest divergence and narrowest market I’ve seen and unfortunately I am mostly on the wrong side.

Overall still up on stocks for the month but not nearly as good as the market index itself, and not enough to make up the gold or BTC losses.

USDJPY also gained a lot though so that’s why closed the month basically flat.

I consulted Gemini for some comfort, and it tells me what I already know but want to hear I guess anyways:

The strategy and allocation isn’t wrong. It’s just a narrow run up that might see a correction sooner or later. And the barbell strategy I am deploying is what allows me to ride at such a high leverage ratio.

During downturns my portfolio should be solid and experience a much shallower drawdown than the indexes, especially given that I’ve added the Japanese industrial names (which performed very poorly this month, -15-20% for MHI and Mitsui).

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Monthly Investment P/L: HK$489,000

Things were mostly V-shaped recovered since the war. Was actually up +800k at one point.

Gold has been stagnating and pulling back though so the P/L hasn’t fully recovered.

Anyway BTC did very well and stocks are at ATH again.

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Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-32,000

Was down -400k at one point, bounced back to flat to end the month.

Gold has held up well, stocks are kind of fine. Added Japanese stocks which performed well this month.

BTC still in the dumpster as usual, just patiently waiting.

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Recap back 2.5 months ago in Nov2025, my guess was:

1. probably 80k bottom, but open to possibility of 60-70k
2. 2026 not a bear market
3. recovery to ATH by Feb-May 2026

Let’s review the predictions and gather the current thoughts at this point.

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Monthly Investment P/L: HK$+397,000

Phew what a roller coaster month to say the least!

Everything is moving up and down … well with BTC just down.

Anyway all in all still very nice return for the month. Feb is having a bad start but somehow I am still kind of confident it’d be an up month.

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I realized I have developed a wider range of thesis for my investments and it’s probably a good idea to keep track of them by writing it out.

And my thinking would probably change over time too so it would be interesting to look back and see how it has evolved.

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Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-21,000

Was up >$200k due to a sharp rise in gold, but had since given back all of it and ended the month near zero.

Still made gains in gold but had some losses with BTC and stocks as well, overall not a great month for risk assets. No Santa rally.

The macro environment is still favoring a bull market though so I am not too concerned. Let’s see if Jan can be an up month.

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So I’ve been doing year in review for business+life, but for investment this would be the first one.

Anyway let me review the kind of thoughts and predictions I had at the beginning of the year, and how things have played out.

Predictions within a 1-year timeframe is near impossible anyway but it’s still a fun activity, plus it’s useful to try to learn from history.

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Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-474000

Needless to say, a terrible month. Basically a mini-bear market for crypto and not great for stocks.

The main loss were from BTC and MSTR, -600k+ for the month. Stocks slightly down, and gold was up.

As mentioned in another post though I think this is a temporary correction and I expect a full recovery quickly.

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