Recap back 2.5 months ago in Nov2025, my guess was:

1. probably 80k bottom, but open to possibility of 60-70k
2. 2026 not a bear market
3. recovery to ATH by Feb-May 2026

Let’s review the predictions and gather the current thoughts at this point.

1 – where is the bottom?

At of writing now Feb 4, the price is 75.8k, which obviously is much lower than the 86-90k range back 3 months ago.

The breakdown happened a few days ago after Warsh’s nomination, and then now seems to be consolidating around the 75-78k range in the past 2-3 days.

I would expect there should be very strong support around these ranges since that was the April tariff lows.

Then also at 72k was the 2024 ATH.

Then 69k which was the 2021 ATH and the level that got tested multiple times in 2024 before breaking out after Trump’s victory.

So if 75k was broken, I’d expect 69-70k to be a VERY strong defense.

And I would be VERY surprised to see it dip back into the 60-70k, although again open to the possibility.

Another data point I would reference – BTC had an ATH of 20k in 2017. By 2022 bear market it dipped to basically that level, before capitulating after FTX collapse, briefly down to 16k to the absolute bottom and recovering.

So without any significant event, I would say the 2021 ATH of 70k should be defended as my base case. If absolute worst it can dip to 60-70k range but that should be the ultimate capitulation.

2 – When is the bear market over?

Back 3 months ago, I would have been more confident that this would blow over in a few short months.

After almost 4 months of being in the bear market and keep on making lower lows though, my confidence have shrunk.

In any case, my base case is still that the 4-year cycle is broken and BTC can recover to ATH in 2026.

Although I do think doing it in the by May 2026 might be a bit difficult.

And the more bearish scenario is, it consolidate in the 70-80k range for months first before breaking back out again.

The 2021-22 bear market lasted for a little over 1 year, so was the bear market in 2017-18.

So if history is any indication, 14 months ish is the longest BTC bear market.

It’s really hard to read the timing so I’ll just say my prediction is:

• best case – the bottom is already in, and it consolidates for a short period of time before breaking out to higher price channels
• worst case – drops down to 60-70k range as the lowest, and can’t break back to higher channels in 2026.

3 – When is it back to ATH?

My previous prediction was ATH in may 2026.

Now I am not so optimistic, but I do still think it’s a possibility.

If that happens, that would prove that the 4-year cycle is officially over and the previous 126k wasn’t a multi-year top, and it will make another super high like 200-300k before another multi-year high happens.

In the more pessimistic scenario, the 4-year cycle actually is playing out right now and -40% from ATH would probably be reasonable in this cycle given that in the previous cycle, it was +350% peak to peak then -75% peak to bottom, and this time it would’ve been +180% peak to peak then -??% peak to bottom.

If that ??% is more than 40%, which also means it dips below the previous 2021 ATH of 70k, I think that would actually kind of break the bitcoin thesis altogether of being a continuously adopted and growing asset of the 21st century.

Summary of current predictions

Best case – bottom is already in at 75k and recovery to ATH of 125k and beyond in the next few months

Base case – bottom is around 70-75k, and consolidate here for a few months, finally clean break out and back to 100k range within 2026

Worst case – bottom is around 60-70k, and it’s stuck until 2027 … but 2027 will be the escape of the bear market anyways.

Feb 7 update

It hit 60k yesterday which was well, very surprising given what I just wrote a day previous to that.

However it did very quickly bounced back up to 70k going into the weekend.

So let’s see if my base case can still play out or is it going to my worst case scenario.

Being range bound sub-60k is not in my list of scenario although of course nothing is impossible.

I will be accumulating more of course at all price levels. bought some at 64k yesterday. probably won’t be buying 70k+ for now but sub-70k I will be increasing again.

The struggle – looking like an idiot

With my conviction on BTC and a clear “rebalance” strategy, it should make sense to just keep buying on the way down.

But I think one of the struggles that can come is seeing all those “predictions” out there about how it will bottom at 50k, 40k, 30k … all kinds of numbers.

And I think I can be misled to think – maybe someone can time the bottom and make most of the buys then, and come out ahead while avoiding the downside.

I am writing this to make sure that I am not misled. Sure there are maybe 10% of people – probably less – who can time the tops and bottoms and make way more than I.

But most people will end up missing the bottom and have to chase on the way up, or worse keep waiting for another bottom while another ATH already came and completely missed the boat.

My strategy steadily accumulate at no matter what price, as long as the liquidity is provided by other stronger assets such as gold.

On the other hand if all assets go down, then I won’t have liquidity to buy anyway.

So this is a reminder to be sure to let the market timers do their thing. Majority of them will fail, and there will be some who succeed. Don’t just focus on those who can.

And I have my own predictions as laid out above. I might be right so in that case it would be silly to not buy sub-70k. Sure I might be wrong but then if so I’d just be buying more at 50k and 40k levels.

The biggest risk would be the fact that the BTC thesis actually doesn’t play out which I put at a very very low probability – although not impossible. I would have a big loss then but not completely crushed at least.

That’s the risk required to ride this asset that can create generational wealth more so than stocks and gold. Just like Ah Ju said, no one could predict 100% HK housing could create generational wealth 50 years ago. But that was the thing. BTC is the thing of this generation … maybe.

It’s Feb 12 now and it moved down <67k. I will be buying again.