I’ve made some realization on my philosophy of why I’ve allocated my portfolio the way I did.

I don’t think I’ve made an entire post on the thinking though, so I am writing it down here.

So if the portfolio’s return isn’t great, I can review this post and remind myself why I’ve chose to put it like this and no need to regret retrospectively.

The current allocation

Currently the allocation I want to achieve is around:

• stocks 30%
• BTC 25%
• gold 45%

I let it fluctuate a bit but thats kind of my “north” that I point it to.

I would probably let BTC float higher too during a bull run.

Anyway though let me go through the thinking behind each allocation.

45% gold – too much?

When I first started investing, I had no allocation in gold.

And I’ve always thought gold is kind of silly, no interest and no dividends.

Why not just invest in bonds right? which is what I did.

And I learned about short-term vs. long-term bonds. And how long-term bonds are actually very risky during rate-hike expectation cycles.

So I actually did have most of my “cash” in short-term bonds.

Until I realized the full picture about inflation and why bonds even pay interest.

You get interest because the money is expected to depreciate, and you are getting compensated for the depreciation that’s all.

The deeper I dig, I realized that for the majority of history, short-term interest rate does not cover inflation.

If it does, where would the money come from???

On the other hand, inflation runs over interest, and the extra goes to asset holders and the government, who has their debt diluted while paying an interest below that rate.

Gold is basically THE asset that everyone would agree that is always going to hold value.

Cultures hold gold as value and central banks hold it as reserve.

I won’t go into the bull cases for gold in the next decade here as I have mentioned in other posts.

Anyway 45% does feel a bit high, and during this 2026 gold slump I can really feel the drag in my portfolio.

However, I have a fairly high margin ratio, and historically gold does have the lowest volatility compared to stocks and btc, so that’s why I’ve chosen such a high allocation.

In the 2024 yen-unwind correction, AND the 2025 tariff-scare correction, both times it was great to hold the gold – my portfolio volatility was significantly lower than the broader market, and I was able to buy the dip quite effectively.

During this 2026 gold slump it certainly doesn’t feel like the right decision at times for 45% allocation, but I’ll keep at this distribution and see how it goes.

25% BTC – risky?

BTC is one of those things, if family or friends knew you invested in it, they would probably be a bit concerned for you.

It goes up and down so much, and for the past almost 1 year I’ve experienced first hand – how long a bear market can drag for and how much damage it can take.

In 2025 I really thought maybe BTC won’t ever go below 100k anymore.

Then 90k range came, and I thought that might have been the bottom.

Then 80k range, I thought this must have been it. even the April 25 tariff scare the bottom was 75k. no way it would go below that right?

Then 70k range, that must have been it.

Then 60k range, 58k bottom, is where I gave up that “must have been it”.

Could it go lower? maybe. I do still think unlikely but now I just don’t trust myself with knowing the bottom.

But this is where having a “north star” and writing posts like this help.

Being prepared for ZERO

I do seriously consider the possibility that BTC can go to zero.

OR maybe some freak incident like the recent coldcard bug hack, even cold wallets can be vulnerable to losses.

So I will definitely make sure that, if BTC does ever go to zero, my finance will still be in decent condition and I won’t have to change my lifestyle just because BTC is dead.

At the moment between BTC and MSTR, including using margin, I have around HK$1.9M in BTC while total assets is around HK$4.2M.

If I lose HK$2M right now, is it going to suck really hard? yeah kind of.

Honestly though last month’s investment loss was 1.3M, so 2M is actually not even that far from a monthly loss I took.

Also in a sense, I won’t really be “needing” this money. Worst case is I can’t rely on this money and my wife and I would have to work to generate enough to cover living costs and save enough to start accumulate wealth again.

Right now we aren’t there yet but regardless we are trying to get there in fact, so a BTC zero case is not terminal for us for sure.

Being positioned to the MOON

On the other side of that is the BTC thesis playing out, adoption keeps growing, it becomes part of the monetary system and gets to USD1M per coin and beyond.

Let’s just use 1M as an anchor.

When that happens, I want myself to be positioned such that, the amount I will earn will most certainly be “life changing”.

And by that I mean, my wife and I can retire and live comfortably for the rest of our lives. Never to worry about money anymore.

No need to increase the lifestyle extravagantly, the current lifestyle is quite good enough.

Maybe just a nicer house is good enough. And occasionally splurging on some nice hotels on a trip.

So let’s say my HK$2M position with BTC at 60k.

1M is a 1600% increase.

if I never bought another BTC or MSTR, and MSTR mnav doesn’t grow, that would be HK$32M.

Which is basically plenty good for my “can retire” line.

Of course in reality it should be more. MSTR is a levered play so I would gain more there.

Also my portfolio itself is levered so as BTC gets into a bull run, I would increase leverage and buy more gold and stocks.

Then when BTC goes into bear I could buy the dip aggressively like in this cycle, raising my BTC from 1 to 3.

I would imagine when BTC is 1M, I would probably be able to get to 5BTC maybe. which would itself be HK$40M.

Along with stocks and gold probably having increased as well, a HK$60-80M net asset portfolio would probably be within reason, which BTC is doing most of the heavy lifting.

So anyway, it sucks that I bought the dip at 90k, 80k, and 70k. There is total realized loss of HK$1M+ on my BTC and MSTR holdings.

But without this dip buying, I wouldn’t be able to position myself for life-changing gains on the next leg up.

And once the next top is in, I’d start buying the next dip again. Then probably regret again that I started too early.

That’s why I am writing this to exactly remind myself, there is no need to regret early dip buying.

I’ll never know where the bottom is, and it’s always good to buy more if the liquidity is there.

Final 30% – stocks

In fact between the 3 assets, I might have the least confident in stocks.

Historically, stocks (especially tech stocks) does outperform gold.

But interestingly since 2000, for the past 25 years gold actually outperformed the S&P500.

And I think the trend will likely continue for years to come.

Also not to mention, stocks has a higher volatility, so the risk-adjusted return isn’t actually better than gold.

In any case, US stocks, and now adding some JP stocks as well, these are good “diversification” away from the “debasement” assets like gold and BTC.

And in 2026 this played out so loudly – gold down, BTC down, stocks at ATH.

So even though my portfolio is down quite a bit this year, stocks actually cushioned some of the losses.

Although unfortunately the stocks that I own actually is down YTD. Mostly it is the index and also semi stocks up, which I own very few.

In any case, stocks also kind of make me feel like at least I am contributing some amount to the advancement of tech, for example investing in tesla, google, amazon, etc.

Summary

To summarize, gold act as the low-vol ultimate inflation hedge, and that is my main priority so it has the highest allocation.

Also I have a heavy bull thesis for gold in the years to come, so I think it would be one of the best performing assets in terms of risk-adjusted return.

BTC is my ticket to wealth.

No other asset I can confidently put 20-30% of my wealth into and still be able to sleep well at night.

Sure zero is a possibility but it’s a low probability. There is also no 3rd party to crush it like how it can be with an individual stock.

And meanwhile still having a decent chance to go 10x, 20x and beyond from where it is.

Compared to gold, I don’t think it can 10-20x in my lifetime. Certainly possible, but not in my probable basket.

If that happens, that just mean fiat USD and other currencies are going to hell, so everything else would be expensive anyway.

US and JP stocks is the productive asset, “balance” away from hard assets.

Also can be a hedge in some periods for example this year in 2026.