Monthly Investment P/L: HK$+48k
A really flat month. Started out pretty good recovering maybe HK$300-400k of the losses from previous month.
However rate hike expectations remain high and Iran war continues to be unresolved.
Anyway hopefully a bottom is in for gold and BTC and I can be patient for a recovery. If it drops further though I might have to reduce leverage again and sell lower.
Current Portfolio:
HKD/USD cash: 8.90% (12.78%)
US/JP stocks: 65.98% (64.78%)
Bitcoin (USD): 46.16% (43.23%)
Gold (USD): 94.75% (93.22%)
YEN cash: 5.23% (4.45%)
JPY shorts: -121.03% (-118.45%)
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Fairly unchanged, right on the very last day though Japan did a joint intervention with the US to push USDJPY down to 156 from 163.
So leverage ratio shot up a few percent but no big deal.
Otherwise haven’t really moved position much at all – gold and BTC remained weak and stocks kind of had a flat month as well, so did not buy or sell much.
US+JP Equity
Semis took a bit hit this month but with my allocation it’s pretty unaffected.
Overall flat for the month on that front, and JP equity actually kind of “recovered” a bit from a stronger yen.
Gold
Super flat and continue to be range bound between 4000-4200.
Just waiting for a break out, hopefully not a break down.
I think with all the central bank buying and rate hike expectation unlikely to move much higher, the upside should be much stronger than the downside.
Hopefully the bottom was already in and the next leg up is soon.
Crypto
Somehow actually the “best performing” asset this month although it definitely did not feel like it, since it was super low at the end of last month.
In any case at least it hasn’t gone lower yet and the selling does seem exhausted.
Every time I thought it was the bottom it wasn’t though, so let’s see if it will hold. I should be okay with my margin even if it drops even further to 50-55k range.
USDJPY
The roller coaster ride of the month.
In reality the yen is super weak due to more tax cut policies and dovish BOJ.
MOF is doing everything they can to prop up the yen though, and well at least it can deter the speculators in the short term.
I think it’s just delaying the inevitable though, unfortunately I couldn’t take any advantage of that since I’m already highly levered, not the time to short more yen and increase leverage.
In any case holding is fine though. I really don’t see it ever going back under 150 anymore, with the last time there being a lot of net long on the yen.
at 156-157 right now perhaps most of the net shorts are cleared. The newest IMM data isn’t available yet but in any case probably not too much to be concerned here since the USD is so strong.
In fact maybe if USD gets weaker that would be exactly what I’d wish for and gold can have its time, which then would be okay to lose some on the USDJPY front.