Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-1.33M

Needless to say, it was a painful month as far as investment returns go.

Basically wiped out all gains I’ve made since I have started investing.

However, I think I was mentally prepared for it as I have ramped up my leverage and gains/losses this magnitude is within my expectations.

And being in unrealized losses feels not great but I am quite confident it will rebound in the near future.

Current Portfolio:

HKD/USD cash: 12.78% (5.83%)

US/JP stocks: 64.78% (54.60%)

Bitcoin (USD): 43.23% (42.36%)

Gold (USD): 93.22% (79.93%)

YEN cash: 4.45% (4.44%)

JPY shorts: -118.45% (-87.15%)

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Unfortunately it was an “everything down” month.

BTC led the way and had a drawdown to the $58k range.

Gold fell below $4k for a moment but seems like 4k has been some kind of support.

Stock indexes are doing well (S&P/nikkei) but not so much my stocks, since mag7, SHLD, NLR are all lagging behind.

Higher for longer narrative

So the biggest influence this month was the “higher for longer” narrative.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had his first meeting and people took him for a hawk.

Which I quite disagree anyway.

Dot plots hints rate hikes incoming soon and now 2 hikes are priced in for this year.

Again I think that will change. Can’t be 100% certain but few observations point me to that conclusion:

• Warsh was picked by Trump, and even if he can’t cut rates, raising especially before midterms would be pretty unthinkable
• Warsh pointed out in the meeting that the data that has been used is “outdated” – which translates probably to tweaking inflation numbers to do what they need
• Oil price is way down and high inflation numbers recently has been caused by oil most likely, so that would likely come down as well
• Job market isn’t great and they have all the excuses they need to at least not hike

So maybe rate cuts aren’t in the cards. But I still don’t think hikes are imminent.

AND if they really end up cutting sometime this year, gold and btc is going to RIP so hard that ATH would probably be back in sight.

My mental state

I think it would be a lie to say there isn’t stress or negative emotion that comes with such a big portfolio drawdown.

But compare to some memorable previous drawdowns (July/Aug 2024, Mar/Apr 2025), I think I feel actually not as stressed as those times.

Maybe because the market seemed to have some big event that make it seems like the bottom has no end in sight.

Compared to June 2026 the S&P500 is actually flat, but just my portfolio is way down due to gold and btc selloffs.

And the narrative of why those are selling off is quite clear.

The question regarding whether this is the bottom – especially for gold, is that are rates expectations really going to go higher from here?

Or more accurately, are REAL rates expectation really going to head up from here? I highly doubt that.

So I am super confident in the debasement trade, and this is just a correction in the broader bull trend for gold, and probably btc.

Fed’s credibility and image of independence got way much higher lately, but I think that would not sustain.

Too bad I don’t have any more liquidity to “buy the dip” but sitting tight and waiting for the recovery without selling can be the best thing to do.

US+JP Equity

The indexes are actually doing quite okay, both nikkei and S&P are flat for the month, and of course WAY up YTD due to the semi-trade.

Unfortunately the JP industrials are way lagging. All my JP positions are under water.

Same goes with US stocks. Mag7 is lagging, SHLD and NLR as well.

So the index is being pulled up by semis and everything I hold is lagging. Which is kind of sad.

I’m writing this on July4 and there seems to be some kind of reverse on the trade though. Let’s see if the reversal can start to gain momentum.

Gold

Way down this month, more so that I would have expected.

Even tested below 4k and it seems to be holding for now.

Just a couple months ago though I thought 4.4-4.6k range was low and was not too willing to sell, hoping it can recover the 4.8-5k range soon.

Now in retrospect selling at 4.4k would have been awesome.

Anyway though just gotta keep in mind that gold is still pristine store of value and the USD can’t stay strong for too long, especially not in this macro environment.

Same story for BTC for the most part as well.

Crypto

BTC has been quite an interesting beast in fact.

Sometimes it goes with the tech narrative.

But Nasdaq are making new ATHs this year while BTC is way down.

Hopefully in which case, it can kind of decouple from tech and when tech is flat or down, BTC can still thrive.

That would be the best case scenario for my portfolio, having all 3 (tech, btc, gold) somewhat uncorrelated and I can enjoy a better return/risk profile.

USDJPY

The only consolation in the entire portfolio.

Since USD is so strong naturally USDJPY would be extremely strong as well.

Although of course certainly not too excited about the gains from the yen shorts.

Also I would worry that MOF would do yen-terventions at these levels anyways so assets are down against USD while JPY might actually hold up.

In any case though seems like the MOF haven’t moved much. Maybe because they know interventions in this environment can have very limited effects.