Alright so it’s June 11 now and the market is just in free fall mode.

Unfortunately it’s not just stocks. In fact stock is kind of the “best” performer out of the assets.

Gold has been falling off a cliff, BTC retraced back to its multi-year low.

Also unfortunately there will be no liquidity to buy the dip this time. Just need to survive.

Liquidity Issue

Also just so unfortunately x2, the timing coincided with moving houses and the car purchase.

I am hoping to get a loan for the car purchase now but I am draining quite a bit of cash for moving etc. regardless.

So excess liquidity has dropped to ~500k, and I just took the car money to at least put back into IBKR and now around ~700k.

which the system shows can handle a drawdown of 8.5% – in reality it would be more since BTC is outside that system.

However even 10-15% cushion is still not too much.

MOX loan strategy

So if liquidity really drops to say HK$200-300k, that would be getting super tight.

I have liquidate-trimmed just a tiny bit of BTC and also stocks and gold to hope to stay afloat.

But I don’t want to sell too much in this down market, effectively selling the dip.

Of course I had always prepared that the leverage strategy does require some selling-the-dip if things get too low.

In any case since the MOX loan is probably required next year for PR, I am thinking of taking it out early to cushion or even buy the dip at this time.

However I do need to decide whether to take just enough to hold me through to next year, or just take out the entire thing now and I can use it next year.

• 1-year loan for $300k would cost 7% which is 20k interest. Not that great of a deal.
• 5-year loan for $300k would cost 4.87% but when I need to top it up to $900k, I would need to pay 2% penalty on the remaining balance (unless they run a top-up campaign)
• 5-year loan for the full $900k cost the same interest 4.87%, but I won’t have to worry about top-up penalty. although I would have paid off 1-year worth by the time I need it next year.

The “holdover”

I won’t take the loan out now, and in case the market recovers in the next few days and my excess liquidity goes back up to the $1M+ range, then I won’t do anything.

However if the market keeps dropping and my excess liquidity dips below 200-300k, I will trim more and also I think I will need to take out the loan.

So I need to decide ahead of time which loan options I will take.

I think the full 900k for 5 years makes the most sense.

The main reason is the timing of me needing that 900k is flexible. The current plan is to apply for PR early next year, but if the money is really tied up and the investment hasn’t recovered, then I could just delay the application until later next year or even early 2028 if needed.

I do have a 2028 deadline though as I would need to renew my visa in Oct 2028 with the new requirements. So early 2028 would be the deadline.

But by the end of 2027 I would hope maybe both BTC and gold could recover their ATHs, and that would be at least HK$3-4M increase in my portfolio then.

Or at least if I can recover the HK$1M loss from this month, at least I can just keep floating and have the loan as excess to put into the company.

Also as a cherry-on-top I would also get the HK$8000 bonus for the 5-year full amount loan.