Investment 20240517

So I decided to start an investment journal here as well instead of just recording once a month because I’ve been learning new things constantly.

Anyways this first post I want to record my current portfolio, the reasoning behind why I set it like that, and my insights for the future at this point.

Should be interesting to look back and see how right or how wrong I am haha.

Current Portfolio:

HKD/USD cash: 24.2%

YEN cash: 7.4%

HKD/USD bonds: 51.2%

USD stocks: 13.4%

JPY stocks: 20.0%

YEN shorts: -16.2%

US Equity Market

Things are going really good, a slight drop in April but super strong in May.

My feeling is maybe there would be a soft-landing, maybe there wouldn’t. I wouldn’t bet on either way.

Therefore I am dipping my toes in with 13.4% currently, with around 60% in nasdaq-ETF and 40% in individual stocks in big tech.

Starting with things I know and use daily like Google, Facebook, Apple, and also Tesla for their potential future development.

JP Equity Market

April is down despite the yen going down, which is hitting me with a double punch. And there I thought basically if yen drops the market should be up.

And that’s while the US market is doing well too.

So in the mid-long term I am still very bullish on JP equity, I’m getting fed up with my yen assets (both equity and cash and property) devaluing so I am executing carry trades to short my yen positions while earning interest rates differentials too.

My insight here is that, mainly hearing from Emin Yuzumaru and other economists and analysts, Japan has gone through a 20+years downward cycle and is at the start of a 40-year super cycle.

  • US need to defeat China and Japan is an ally that they are going to use
  • US wants cheap yen to get manufacturing back into Japan, and inflation will come in a great wave which stock will absorb
  • Tokyo Stock Exchange is getting companies to improve corporate governance and prioritize shareholder’s benefit
  • Japanese people with ¥2T savings will realize not putting it in JP stock is nonsense – adding to JP stock as well as yen selling to buy US stock


Definitely on a downward trend in the mid-long term. Also just having lost so much going from 100 to 150 in 3 years, if and when it goes to 200 I want to be protected, or even benefit from there.

Could it go back to 100? in a case of huge US economic downturn and sharp rate cuts, possibly.

Could Japan raise rate to cause yen to rise? Not that much in the next 2-3 years probably.

Then the fundamentals. Digital trade deficits, low exports, Japanese buying US stocks, all contributing to the weak yen.

On top of that, my contrarian insight (hearing from Jamie Dimon, Bill Ackman and others) is that inflation will be way more persistent than people think and for a very long time. People are just too used to zero or low rates for too long, but with deflationary factors like cheap China production gone, higher oil prices due to war, green energy etc. deficit is going to keep racking up and govt will have to use inflation to reduce the debt.

Same thing in Japan as well and perhaps in a much greater degree since raising rate is Japan is difficult, contributing to further weakening of yen.

With US inflation persistent US rates wont come down, and the market probably think the interest rate spread will become smaller but even if it does it will be in the short term. In the next 3-5 years I can only see the gap widening and I am expecting the yen to go to at least 200 in that timeframe.

So meanwhile I will at least short yen until I have no liquid yen position, possibly considering shorting far enough to cancel maybe half my position with the ¥20M real estate holding as well.

That would mean at least -30% in yen shorts and possibly up to -60-80%.

At -60% that would be around HK$1.2M worth of yen shorts and if yen drops by 30% in 3 years I’d make 30% + 10% interest spread = 40% on 1.2M = ~500k HKD. that would be pretty crazy.

I am going to go slow though and also make sure mentally I can handle any short term yen strengthening to say 130 or even 120 in the short term which I think is plausible.

Target moving to -30% by the end of 2024, and possibly further in 2025 and 26 if things are moving in the direction I predicted.

Also hope to find a dip where fed lowered rates or something changed and it slides down to say 140 or even 130. I don’t quite see it going to 120 so my strategy probably looks like:

  • -4% (10k USD) @ 150
  • -4% (10k USD) @ 145
  • -4% (10k USD) @ 140
  • -4% (10k USD) @ 135
  • or 20k USD by end of year if stay around ~155-160 by end of 2024

(up to ~-30% at this point)

will consider moving beyond -30% if it slides further based only on interest rate spreads without any fundamental changes

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