Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$239,000

What another crazy month!

Huge selloff after liberation day, then recovered everything by the end of the month.

Gold and Bitcoin has moved up meanwhile though and made quite a lot of profit from there.

Current Portfolio:

HKD/USD cash: 5.39% (4.19%)

USD stocks: 31.25% (34.24%)

Bitcoin (USD): 26.55% (18.09%)

Gold (USD): 52.43% (53.97%)

YEN cash: 4.62% (6.55%)

JPY shorts: -20.24% (-17.02%)
USDJPY: 149.89 (143.01)

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With the US stocks sell-off earlier in the month, I was not in a hurry to add to any of the positions, as a bear market feels imminent.

Not to mention the DXY was also falling off a cliff and USDJPY was falling sharply.

So the classic double-punch – falling US stocks to a falling USD.

Anyway I did not want to become risk-off with the market though, so I instead rotated the % into bitcoin.

For many reasons I have gotten extremely bullish in bitcoin for the next several months to 1-2 year anyways. I’ve written about that in other posts.

So while I didn’t sell stocks to buy bitcoin, I “rotated” the allocation by using the buy-ins I was suppose to allocate to stocks, and allocated it to bitcoin.

Also raised the margin to buy more gold and bitcoin as well.

Gold rose to 56%+ of the portfolio at one point but has retraced toward the end of the month and I haven’t really rebalanced yet.

I am not sure if it’s the right time to rebalance though and I might just contract the gold % a little bit for now unless it falls under the 3200 support.

US Equity

The valuation stuff is too much of a hassle so I’m getting rid of that section.

Anyway just to summarize, stocks was beaten down so much after liberation day, from “oversold” condition pretty much to “sold-out” condition.

I was quite sure that is likely to be the short-term bottom, although I didn’t really want to buy because as mentioned bitcoin has more upside and less downside from what I can see at this point.

In any case, the stocks did rebound nicely and recovered all the April losses. the S&P500 eked out positive return for the month.

I can’t really read how it might go from here though. I think continued recovery is likely and after a few months we see no recession, some slowdowns but nothing to freak out over, then the whole tariff fiasco will be forgotten and the market can get back to positive return for the entire year or even ATH (-5% for the year, -9% from ATH at this point)

If not, by staying in gold and bitcoin I can probably weather another storm nicely and with liquidity pumping, I will come out on top no matter what.

The only losing scenario would be a liquidity contraction, which seems less and less likely given the slowdown and uncertainty the tariffs are bringing to the world.

Gold

Am I glad that I had such a large position in gold!

The market tanked while gold soared. During the lowest point I was still down quite a bit, but at least way ahead of the market (-5% for the portfolio vs. -10% for the market).

It will definitely work the opposite way eventually though, as it kind of has toward the end of the month, -7% from the highs and -3.5% for the week.

In any case when I take a big loss in gold, I have to remember how much it protected me during the turmoil, and also remember that as long as liquidity is pumping, gold will keep rising.

Also as the asset with no nationality, it’s a good hedge against either a falling DXY or a falling JXY. I would be protected either way.

Crypto

With a falling DXY it’s no wonder that bitcoin has held its position fairly well during the turmoil.

Some even say the “decoupling” is coming, although I am skeptical about that.

Nevertheless, with the dollar strength in big question mark due to recent events, bitcoin is just “safer” than US tech stocks at least at the moment … or at least in other word yielding a much better sharpe ratio probably at this point in time.

Anyway with the liquidity pump coming, I might expect BTC to pump up to at least 120-150k soon enough … maybe this year?

Could be completely wrong though but I’m definitely glad to get this chance to get so many between 80-90k during these couple of down months.

USDJPY

with the DXY off a cliff, of course the USDJPY is taking a big hit. JXY has gone up too I think.

In any case, XAUJPY is still up a lot for the month though (+8.8%) so I am not concerned at all. In fact if I had taken more leverage I could earn even more.

I did increase my margin by a bit though so that was nice. I am thinking maybe increasing it just a little more this month maybe.

I kept thinking I need to save some of the margin for when I buy a house. But maybe I would be losing out on some gain if I don’t go a bit more aggressively.

It’s good to take my time to work up my tolerance though anyway. I will probably increase a bit again this month.