I realized I have developed a wider range of thesis for my investments and it’s probably a good idea to keep track of them by writing it out.

And my thinking would probably change over time too so it would be interesting to look back and see how it has evolved.

Overall Macro world view

• #1 – more fragmented world, more nationalism, more wars
• #2 – which leads to more fiscal spending, more national debt
• #3 – which leads to higher inflation for longer, accelerating currency debasements

Using margin

• use more margins because currency will debase faster than interest rate for a long time
• minimum cash, no bonds – 100% risk assets for maximum protection

Shorting yen

• 123

Gold

• US debt problem + Russia sanction -> distrust in the dollar

Defense

Commodities

Nuclear + infrastructure + uranium

AI + robotics