It’s Nov 2026 now and I want to write a post to jot down my thought on why I am investing the way I am now, and how I am planning ahead for 2030+.

The main concern about 2030+ is that either I would have to pay up ¥30M paid-in capital and hire a full-time to continue staying in Japan, or I have to move back to HK.

The first choice, at least for now, is wanting to stay in Japan for sure.

And well staying would be expensive, as outlined in previous posts – around 15-20k/mo just to pay office rent, taxes for myself and the staff, and opportunity cost for the ¥30M capital.

This trip to HK though I’ve taken a look at some rental units near Kai Tak, and also done some research on 28hse etc. And well – moving back to HK is actually very expensive as well if we want to live at least the same quality as back in 2018 in Grand Yoho.

The Bull Case – HK$10M-15M+

If BTC can enter a true bull market at hit at least 150-200k+ in the next 4 years, I would estimate my crypto related holdings should be able to gain 400%, with MSTR, options, and leverage use.

so I would expect a $5-6M gain just from crypto and even if stocks and gold were completely flat that would already be $10M.

of course those won’t stay flat though so some moderate gains would put it to 12-15M easily.

the portfolio is $4.6M now so it’s a 200-300% in 4 years. Ambitious but feasible I think.

In this case, first I would have already bought mother’s unit for sure, which is actually only like 10% of the portfolio.

I would also consider maybe just doing a full pay for a house in Japan for maybe HK$4-5M after getting a fresh new HSP 5-year visa.

Although buying with no loan and also no PR feels a bit weird anyway. Maybe I’ll either just renew the current house, or maybe rent another place after the current 5-year contract is over.

I would have decent capital to deploy for both the paid-in and the staff so that wouldn’t be an issue.

The Base case – HK$8-10M

if somehow there is no bull market, but things just kind of go “normal” or some parts of my view is not quite right, then maybe it would be an overall increase of 8-10% per year and with leverage around 10-15%.

In this scenario I think we would probably still stay in Japan although it wouldn’t be “easy cruising” needing to put at least 1M in the company and also incurring the extra expense.

Although after some calculation moving back to HK and maintaining “the lifestyle” – living in a place equivalent to Grand Yoho and having a car, would end up probably costing about the same so might as well keep working hard in Japan.

Definitely would need to try high-ticket or some other ventures to increase income significantly so it’s not like now where I’m actually eating into the portfolio instead of being able to contribute to it.

The Bear case – HK$4-8M

I think the scariest is the bear case, where there is basically no growth and we are at the same place in 2030 as now.

In that case it would be quite difficult to maintain being in Japan and hiring.

Being able to drastically increase income would definitely help, would need to see if we can somehow do that.

Otherwise, another decent solution is to first move back to HK and live a “modest” lifestyle.

Maybe somewhere around $25-30k rent where the place would be comfortable but not as good as Grand Yoho. And also of course no car.

Alternatively if the wife wants to work part-time we can certainly go back to the “good” lifestyle but I guess it’s not necessary.

Meanwhile we can work hard to boost the income and/or wait for the investment thesis to eventually play out.

Although if it doesn’t play out in 4 years, I don’t know why or how I can continue to expect it to play out.

With the graduate degree and 90 points, I could move back to Japan anytime with a 1-year fast track so thats a good 後路 to have.

Although if we do move back, I think we might just stay and give up the whole Japan PR thing and just maintain an airBnB to live there for ~2-3mo per year.

Probabilities of each?

Honestly it’s difficult to put a percentage on each.

I am certainly praying for the bull case and I do deeply believe that will be happening.

Of course I might be wrong so I need to know that even if I’m wrong I can still live comfortably.