Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-111,000
Finally a down month … mainly driven by some BTC downturn, and an even stronger MSTR downturn.
Was up +$100k at one point as BTC hit ATH around 123k again, but had a pullback to 109k and MSTR also had the mNAV compressed by a lot.
Stocks are flat while Gold is up, and the BTC correction is completely healthy and will be a small pullback I am pretty sure.
So nothing to be concerned about at all at this point.
It’s been a theme these past few months, maybe this year – that I’m constantly adding leverage to my portfolio.
As I become more educated and also more confident in my investment theses, I find that it would be disadvantageous to not use up available liquidity just for the sake of “safety”.
Of course that being said, safety needs to be a concern at all times, and so I am adding metrics to safeguard the downside while making sure I’m not leaving huge amount of money on the table by having too much idle liquidity.
So MSTR has kind of behaved strangely in the past couple months. Looking at a 3-mo horizon, BTC is up +13.9%, while MSTR is -11.3% as I am writing.
I can understand if BTC is up more than MSTR. Even understand if BTC is up and MSTR is kind of flat.
But they have gone opposite direction pretty significantly these past 1-2 months – and of course the mNAV has compressed quickly and significantly, from 1.8x just a month ago to ~1.4x currently.
So the question is – is the MSTR premium over and it will continue compressing to 1? Or is it just a temporary setback that will correct itself?
So the US stock market has really rallied from its April lows, in apparently one of the biggest V-shape recovery in history, gaining 20%+ in just a couple months.
Of course my portfolio has benefitted greatly especially since I’ve bought all the way down since Feb.
However, looking back at these 3 months, most of my biggest positions have underperformed the market – even though tech stocks is suppose to outperform the market during run-ups.
Unfortunately that wasn’t the case and I’ll break it down more below.
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$181,000
Yet ANOTHER great month – same story … stocks continue their V-shaped recovery to ATHs, and bitcoin is at ATH after some consolidation.
Again same thing with gold … hasn’t really moved much but it isn’t moving down either.
The final day of the month marked some correction and I am -$80k on Aug2 morning as I’m writing this, but it’s a healthy correction I think.
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$167,000
Yet another great month – Stocks continue their V-shaped recovery, and bitcoin is slowly creeping back up.
Gold hasn’t really moved much but it isn’t moving down either, so that’s fine.
Nothing too spectacular but just another good month in a continued bull market.
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$255,000
A really good month – as the US stocks really recovered from their lows, with less tariff worries now compared to early April.
Gold hasn’t moved as a result but it has kept stable.
Bitcoin moved back to and broke above ATH although losing some steam this week back to 104k.
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$239,000
What another crazy month!
Huge selloff after liberation day, then recovered everything by the end of the month.
Gold and Bitcoin has moved up meanwhile though and made quite a lot of profit from there.
Alright, so the USDJPY has fallen to 142 in the past few days (JPYHKD ~0.055)
This is basically the lowest since 2023 and has hit the low of the yen-carry unwind fiasco back in Aug2024.
So the big question is – is the weak yen over? Or is this just a temporary setback?
My conclusion is, it should be a temporary setback, and I will lay out the reasons. Will check back at this post in a few months or a year to see how it unfolds.
Started out pretty brutal but recovered quite a bit toward the end.
Also gold is just having a huge bull run, so the gains there offset the loss from US stocks and bitcoin quite a bit.
In any case bitcoin is holding out pretty well and I already wrote another post lately on my new bullish-ness on that.