I realized I have developed a wider range of thesis for my investments and it’s probably a good idea to keep track of them by writing it out.
And my thinking would probably change over time too so it would be interesting to look back and see how it has evolved.
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-21,000
Was up >$200k due to a sharp rise in gold, but had since given back all of it and ended the month near zero.
Still made gains in gold but had some losses with BTC and stocks as well, overall not a great month for risk assets. No Santa rally.
The macro environment is still favoring a bull market though so I am not too concerned. Let’s see if Jan can be an up month.
So I’ve been doing year in review for business+life, but for investment this would be the first one.
Anyway let me review the kind of thoughts and predictions I had at the beginning of the year, and how things have played out.
Predictions within a 1-year timeframe is near impossible anyway but it’s still a fun activity, plus it’s useful to try to learn from history.
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-474000
Needless to say, a terrible month. Basically a mini-bear market for crypto and not great for stocks.
The main loss were from BTC and MSTR, -600k+ for the month. Stocks slightly down, and gold was up.
As mentioned in another post though I think this is a temporary correction and I expect a full recovery quickly.
It’s Nov 21 2025 now and BTC is at 86k, MSTR around $177.
BTC was -30% from its ATH of 126k less than 2 months ago in Sept.
MSTR’s ATH of $430 was made earlier in July, and now -60% 4 months later.
The strangest thing is, there isn’t too much bad news … in fact pretty much all headwind so far, outlined in my bull case post a couple months ago.
So what is going on?
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$108,000
Up for the month, but don’t really have that “up” feel because fell quite a bit from beginning of the month.
Gold exploded up to $4300+ but pulled back to around $4000 level. Stocks did quite okay.
Bitcoin hit ATH but quickly pulled back to 105-115k consolidation range. MSTR is in the dumpster so a lot of losses there.
USDJPY ran up quite a bit too though so all in all a slightly positive month.
I’ve been using the fear/greed gauge to sort of give myself an indication of overbought and oversold conditions.
And while very useful, Gold has basically shot up against gravity and broke right through $4000 as of today.
During this epic run up, it’s been in “extreme greed” level for a pretty long time, and I want to jot down my thoughts on this one.
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$526,000
Needless to say, just a super spectacular month for investment returns!
Mostly coming from the outperformance of gold, but US stocks did quite well as well.
BTC is actually really lagging, more below.
As of Sept 2025, currently quite bullish with risk assets (BTC, US stocks) based on a few reasons, which I will explain below
Also at the same time, not for the same reason, I want to push up the leverage ratio, as explain in the other posts.
So there is this weird combination of trying to buy a lot during a bull run, which is a conflicting feeling, and I want to write down my thoughts here.
So after some internal debate, I have finally decided to dip my toes into some ETH.
The story is compelling – stablecoins, financial tokenization, etc. which can really fuel ETH usage. And it’s different than the previous NFT hype I am pretty sure.
The risk is there for sure though … competitions (SOL, etc), and also fluctuating supply mechanism, unlike BTC 21M hard supply cap.