As of Sept 2025, currently quite bullish with risk assets (BTC, US stocks) based on a few reasons, which I will explain below

Also at the same time, not for the same reason, I want to push up the leverage ratio, as explain in the other posts.

So there is this weird combination of trying to buy a lot during a bull run, which is a conflicting feeling, and I want to write down my thoughts here.

The current bull market setup

So the market has recovered from the huge correction during Feb-Apr 2025, and has since made more ATHs. I think very few people thought the recovery could be this quick.

And the run up has been fierce – +25% for the QQQ in 4-5 months.

It begs the question, is another pullback or correction due? Is a top being made, or is there still a lot of room to run?

There are 3 main reasons that cause me to believe there is still a lot of room:

• Fed cutting into ATHs – historically when that happens, after 3mo or 12mo, the market is up 100% of the time. Which make sense because they are pouring oil on burning fire. Most of the time the tops are made from switching from a cutting cycle to a hiking cycle. That does not seem to be on the horizon at this point, when Trump is yelling for a 200 basis point cut.
• Low market sentiment – Most of the time the market puts on a top, when the market sentiment cycle is switching from greed to fear. However at this point it is only at neutral and maybe slight greed. If people start getting greedy, the bull market has a lot of fuel left behind.
• Lowering oil prices – almost at all instances recessions and market tops are triggered by spiking oil prices which put immense pressure on businesses. The trend is the opposite at this point.

Of course things can all change in a blink of an eye, but I think for the next 6-12 months at least, there should continue to be a short-term bull market that won’t see a 10%+ pullback.

And of course my main thesis is still that we are in a secular bull market that will run for at least another 10 years, or maybe even never-ending with the money printer at work whenever a downturn comes.

The painful lesson in Feb 2025

Back in Jan 2025, I had had to buy, buy, buy because grandma’s HK$1.3M came.

I bought a lot of stuff at the top, especially got burned with TSLA. Had a -USD5000 loss at one point despite my early low entry point of $160.

Nevertheless, 7 months later, almost recovered to that “top” I bought.

With that said, it’s still a losing trade since the money could have been put to better use elsewhere.

So I am hesitant to lever up too fast, and instead now always very slowly DCAing into stuff.

But lots of other buys that was “at the top” turned out to be great – mainly gold, and BTC did well too. GOOGL was another huge buy that took a bit of time but by Sept turned out those were great buys.

Why I should not fear “the top”

Tom Lee said in a podcast interview – don’t let the fear of buying the top makes you miss out on good ideas.

BTC was at 1k when he started recommending it in 2017. Any point of time during any “tops” would have been great buys in retrospect.

Plus it would be difficult to buy right at the exact top anyway, and if the asset gets a pullback, there is always rotation possible to “buy the dip”.

On the other hand, any uninvested cash, or unused leverage sitting there on the sideline, creates negative EV every moment it’s sitting there.

So I want to remind myself that, maybe be a little bit careful and do some DCAing, but don’t be too hesitant and miss out on the gains. More importantly, don’t overthink and make too many trades that probably end up costing excess mental energy.

Focus on good ideas and make sure I have conviction

“Good ideas” and “convictions” are the 2 most important keywords.

If I haven’t studied in depth and am not sure what I am investing in, I need to keep it a minimum. Don’t be afraid to miss out if the conviction is low, because remember it’s easy to lose.

But if on the other hand, the conviction is high, then don’t be afraid to go in, and if a high conviction bet turned out to be a losing bet, then so be it. So far TSLA has been a losing bet more or less, staying flat while other stocks and gold/btc is soaring. But I am okay with that, and I remain to have high conviction on TSLA despite everything.

5 years later maybe it would still turn out that it was a losing bet, but it would be a “good” bet anyway based on what I know now.

BTC as well … maybe it will not turn out to be what I predict. But it is one of my biggest bet and the reward just outweigh the risk so much that it’s worth going in deep.