Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$255,000
A really good month – as the US stocks really recovered from their lows, with less tariff worries now compared to early April.
Gold hasn’t moved as a result but it has kept stable.
Bitcoin moved back to and broke above ATH although losing some steam this week back to 104k.
Current Portfolio:
HKD/USD cash: 4.57% (5.39%)
USD stocks: 32.27% (31.25%)
Bitcoin (USD): 31.0% (26.55%)
Gold (USD): 55.1% (52.43%)
YEN cash: 3.04% (4.62%)
JPY shorts: -25.98% (-20.24%)
USDJPY: 144.28 (143.01)
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One of my biggest moves this month is increasing leverage and margin borrowing.
With buying a house pretty much out of the question at least for the next 2 years, I need to put the leverage to good use instead of just saving it there.
Also I’ll be putting up 706 for sale soon so that cash need to be put to use.
In any case I’ll be just a bit more aggressive with margin than before in general as well.
Most of that new capital is deployed to bitcoin, with some to gold as well.
US equity isn’t my favorite right now so it had only increased a tad.
US Equity
It’s been a great recovery since April, which was kind of unexpected.
As Tom Lee says, the recovery feels kind of unreal and it’s a “hated rally”.
In any case, from the amount of correction that US stocks displayed, especially the big-tech, its reward-to-risk is definitely not so great, at least compared to bitcoin.
Especially at this moment when there are so many tailwinds for bitcoin and the price still feels kind of suppressed around 100-110k.
So I am not looking to add US equity for sure although I am also hesitant to sell the rally.
After getting back to ATH I would probably start unloading some.
Gold
Really flat month as tariff worries subside.
The market is back to risk-on and that becomes a headwind for gold … which is alright though since gold is the “risk hedge”, “cash substitute” play for me that can catch up with inflation.
Crypto
Did really well alongside stocks and actually broke ATH while stocks still aren’t there.
A bit depressed this past week falling from 110k+ back to now 104k.
It’s probably actually a healthy pullback though, shaking out any selling pressures from maybe weaklings and long-term holders who haven’t cashed out.
Remain super bullish due to factors mentioned in the past 1-2 months … target price 120-150k in 2025.
USDJPY
Pretty much flat here as well, which is a bit surprising as the market has become so much more risk-on
My guess is even with the risk-on environment there is a lot of headwind for DXY so people aren’t so eager to do the yen-carry at this point.
Still a lot of USDJPY short positions although a slight drop from April.
I’m not really concerned here though as the majority of investments are non-USD – gold and bitcoin.