Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-111,000
Finally a down month … mainly driven by some BTC downturn, and an even stronger MSTR downturn.
Was up +$100k at one point as BTC hit ATH around 123k again, but had a pullback to 109k and MSTR also had the mNAV compressed by a lot.
Stocks are flat while Gold is up, and the BTC correction is completely healthy and will be a small pullback I am pretty sure.
So nothing to be concerned about at all at this point.
Current Portfolio:
HKD/USD cash: 5.09% (4.59%)
HKD shorts: 0% (-3.91%)
USD stocks: 33.81% (33.18%)
Bitcoin (USD): 40.92% (39.95%)
Gold (USD): 64.61% (60.04%)
YEN cash: 3.31% (3.96%)
JPY shorts: -47.74% (-37.82%)
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I would’ve thought BTC % would be up since I have been buying. But I guess the pullback offset a lot of the buying so the % is fairly stable.
On the other hand I haven’t really bought gold but I haven’t sold either, so I kind of ran up.
Anyway I’ve added % allocation to gold because I am leveraging up again and I’ll be adding quite a bit more BTC/MSTR as well as ETH/BMNR in the coming month.
US Equity
Still hitting ATH but is getting a little bit choppy.
GRNY and QQQ are completely flat, while some previous laggards like GOOGL and AAPL made +10% gains, so overall it was a completely flat month.
Absolutely normal though as the market has run up quite a bit, and also the Fear/Greed level is still only at slightly greed, so I am looking neither to trim nor to add too much.
Gold
Finally some breakthrough signs for gold.
Up almost 4% for the month, and made some breakthroughs from a technical analysis level.
I haven’t trimmed yet because I am levering up across the board so I just don’t buy more, and allocate the buying to BTC mostly. (buy the weakest)
If gold continue to run up, I might rebalance and trim off to buy more BTC possibly.
Crypto
Quite a roller coaster month – first broke to previous ATH around 123k, before pulling back quite a bit down to 109k at the end of the month.
So a significant enough 10%+ pullback from ATH to the lows, but I think it’s just some healthy correction.
Whales continue to do some unloading (and also maybe rotating to ETH?), but institutions and treasury companies are still buying.
Personally I am levering up and since gold and stocks has kind of run up already, I can allocate quite a bit to buying more BTC as well as ETH.
Starting a ETH/BMNR position
By the way after some internal debate, I have finally decided to dip my toes into some ETH.
The story is compelling – stablecoins, financial tokenization, etc. which can really fuel ETH usage. And it’s different than the previous NFT hype I am pretty sure.
Also Tom Lee is really bullish on it – as far as taking the chairman position on an ETH treasury company. I do really trust the guy so on top of the research I’ve done on my own, I think it’s a good bet.
The risk is there for sure though … competitions (SOL, etc), and also fluctuating supply mechanism, unlike BTC 21M hard supply cap.
In any case, I think ETH has much more upside in the coming few years, as well as more volatility and risks … so I think I’ll be allocating 5-10% of crypto split into ETH and BMNR, at least to start and see how it goes.
Or I am debating whether to just do BMNR and skip ETH altogether for simplicity and higher risk/reward.
The main strategy and BTC thesis has not changed though, so it is going to be a small allocation.
USDJPY
Haven’t really moved at all.
Was hitting 150 briefly but after some jobs and inflation data, got back down to 147 immediately and the rate cut chance has gone up.