Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$108,000
Up for the month, but don’t really have that “up” feel because fell quite a bit from beginning of the month.
Gold exploded up to $4300+ but pulled back to around $4000 level. Stocks did quite okay.
Bitcoin hit ATH but quickly pulled back to 105-115k consolidation range. MSTR is in the dumpster so a lot of losses there.
USDJPY ran up quite a bit too though so all in all a slightly positive month.
Current Portfolio:
HKD/USD cash: 3.55% (4.73%)
USD stocks: 41.12% (35.68%)
Bitcoin (USD): 50.62% (48.04%)
Gold (USD): 71.44% (68.12%)
YEN cash: 4.01% (4.66%)
JPY shorts: -70.74% (-61.23%)
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Same as in the previous few months, increased leverage, increased all assets exposure.
BTC actually didn’t go up as much as I would’ve thought, given that I bought a lot this month. I guess it’s because it went down so much.
Didn’t really buy gold and it ran up based on price.
Stocks actually ran up quite a bit, I guess because bought a little and also went up on its own.
US Equity
Some volatility this month but at the end it’s still an up month. Pretty mixed bag, with some stocks up some stocks down.
Market breadth is a little narrow, big tech is leading which isn’t necessarily a good thing for the market as a whole if it doesn’t widen.
Added a new ETF, NLR, which is quite volatile but seems to have pretty good return recently. It’s a nuclear / uranium bet so ~10% allocation seems alright. Along with VST and CEG around 15-20% of the stock portfolio.
Gold
Another super historical crazy month for gold.
Shot all the way up to $4300 before having a giant pullback back to around $3900-4000 range.
Now seems to be consolidating around $4000 which is quite to-be-expected.
If I had to guess, it’ll probably consolidate for a couple months or more, before running up again.
Lower support I see it around $3600, would be surprised if it drops below that.
Crypto
Pretty disappointing month. Hit ATH at the beginning of the month, people thought it might be “the breakout”.
Turned out to be a false breakout along with the largest crypto liquidation event after some silly trump tweet.
108k, recovered to 116k, then thought breakout again.
Another false breakout, back to 108k, now around 110k.
Super long consolidation period, basically since the beginning of the year when it hit ATH of 108k back then.
Would’ve thought the breakout to 140-150k would have happened by now, but BTC does take patience.
MSTR is even worse, completely down in the dumpster for now. I think it’s an opportunity that won’t be seen for another few years though, being able to buy MSTR at around 1.3-1.5x diluted mnav.
Prefers just came out this year, S&P just rated them this month, and they are pivoting still away from the converts.
I remain super bullish on both BTC and MSTR for the long term, and will keep buy-buy-buy at these opportunities.
USDJPY
Being stuck at the boring range of 145-150 for months, finally broke out on Takaichi’s victory and now sits at 154.
I think 160 should be coming although BOJ and MOF might take actions if it gets too high too quickly.
In any case yen rates are still low, rate differentials still high, so I will continue to short JPY as my fiat-short play.