Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-474000
Needless to say, a terrible month. Basically a mini-bear market for crypto and not great for stocks.
The main loss were from BTC and MSTR, -600k+ for the month. Stocks slightly down, and gold was up.
As mentioned in another post though I think this is a temporary correction and I expect a full recovery quickly.
Current Portfolio:
HKD/USD cash: 8.47% (3.55%)
USD stocks: 41.31% (41.12%)
Bitcoin (USD): 45.39% (50.62%)
Gold (USD): 76.31% (71.44%)
YEN cash: 2.53% (4.01%)
JPY shorts: -74.02% (-70.74%)
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Heavily rotated from gold to MSTR, also some BTC.
Also increased margin and basically all went into MSTR.
Cash balance increased from the cash received from both the ¥1.2M down payment for 706 and also HK$300k deposited from mother. I am giving her 8% per year on it.
MSTR and BTC dropped like a rock though so I am giving it a little breathing room and haven’t bought fully back to allocation yet. Probably will keep it at most 2-3% under and let the rebound do the rest.
US Equity
S&P is actually flat for the month but tech stocks didn’t do great.
Also I started some high beta positions like NLR recently which took big hits and haven’t recovered fully yet.
Anyway similar to BTC I think it’s a temporary liquidity issue and the bull market will rip again soon.
Gold
After the spectacular run in recent months, not surprising that it’s starting to consolidate.
It’s holding up pretty well though above $4-4.1k, and I am actually up for the month on gold anyway.
Crypto
Super surprising to see such bearish developing on BTC.
And well since BTC is so bearish that will reflect on MSTR with an mnav compression as well. It’s still pretty much holding the 1x line though at least for now.
Anyway I am basically buying mostly MSTR around and below 1x mnav, and allocated mostly there instead of BTC. Especially at this point in time.
After this blows over and if/when MSTR recovers to the 1.5-2x+ mnav region, I will stop any MSTR purchase or even sell some, keeping my “reasonable” mnav range around 1.2-1.8x.
My expectation of a full recovery to ATH is around 2-3 months although if it can happen in Dec 2025 that would be great too.
USDJPY
Upward pressure on it although not as violent as last month.
Luckily I am pretty fully allocated with my desired level of margin so I was able to “borrow the more expensive yet” and made some pretty good spread here.
Yen long term yields are rising and some people are saying that there are dangers of the yen carry unwind like last year in 2024.
I strongly disagree with that narrative though.
I think it will continue to weaken. Jul 2025 USDJPY was at 160 and there were lots of net short yen positions, which caused the unwind and quick drop in the usdjpy.
Right now it’s around 156-157 but there are net long yen positions. They don’t necessarily need to unwind but it’s hard to see them accumulating further, after all there is a carrying cost to it. That’s why I don’t see a USDJPY carry unwind, and even interventions will have limited effect.
If it gets up to 160 and beyond, it’s somewhat feasible that it blows through a resistance and it becomes support and moves to the 170 range. I think the yen longs will unwind at that point and maybe start attracting some short speculators to come earn the spread too.