Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-21,000
Was up >$200k due to a sharp rise in gold, but had since given back all of it and ended the month near zero.
Still made gains in gold but had some losses with BTC and stocks as well, overall not a great month for risk assets. No Santa rally.
The macro environment is still favoring a bull market though so I am not too concerned. Let’s see if Jan can be an up month.
Current Portfolio:
HKD/USD cash: 4.48% (8.47%)
USD stocks: 34.76% (41.31%)
Bitcoin (USD): 40.78% (45.39%)
Gold (USD): 66.25% (76.31%)
YEN cash: 14.04% (2.53%)
JPY shorts: -60.31% (-74.02%)
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Naturally since the proceed from 706 sale had come in, the yen cash increased substantially.
I will deploy that in stages and plan to get leverage back up to at least around 70%.
US Equity
Just like last month, the index is barely up but my portfolio not so much. Anyway not really down either though, just flat.
Still bullish but not as bullish as BTC. Might see some turbulence in 2026.
Gold
Surged pass 4.5k before retrieving to currently 4.3k and seem to be stabilising there.
I think 4.3k should be a strong support though since it was the previous resistance for a while.
I am confident on the mid-long term supercycle for gold though so any dip is a buy for me (or a rotate from stronger assets)
Crypto
So obviously a recovery didn’t happen in December. At least it’s just flat though and holding the 86-88k range pretty well.
Just as the guy from “on-chain mind” said, BTC usually don’t go into a V-shaped recovery after a strong pullback.
As I’ve repeated though I think the environment has many tailwinds and 2026 should be a good year for BTC.
Not sure how long consolidation would last and whether it can break down a bit further though, but if history repeats or rhymes, BTC will reward the patient.
USDJPY
nothing much here, still going strong and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
2026 will probably be another “weak dollar, weaker yen” year.
That’s why should be good for assets like gold and BTC as well as stocks.