Monthly Investment P/L: HK$+345,000
Phew what a roller coaster month to say the least!
Everything is moving up and down … well with BTC just down.
Anyway all in all still very nice return for the month. Feb is having a bad start but somehow I am still kind of confident it’d be an up month.
Current Portfolio:
HKD/USD cash: 3.76% (4.48%)
USD stocks: 43.77% (34.76%)
Bitcoin (USD): 37.69% (40.78%)
Gold (USD): 74.2% (66.25%)
YEN cash: 6.45% (14.04%)
JPY shorts: -65.87% (-60.31%)
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So the leverage ratio finally caught up to where I want it to be.
With gold and BTC both falling like a rock these few days though, I think the leverage ratio actually went above.
I think I am okay with just a bit higher leverage ratio though, in the 70-80% range not counting cash would probably be fine.
One of the biggest move is starting to position into JP equity again.
And I readjusted stocks to be equal weight to BTC now, since I think being more exposed to stocks than BTC might not be best for the portfolio health – and adding JP stocks help spread out the volatility (especially with the choice of stocks I make).
Actually I’ll just make a separate post about this move.
US+JP Equity
US stocks in the portfolio actually did pretty well, despite the market being flat overall.
ETFs like SHLD and NLR performed well – although NLR I’m still in the red.
Had some nice gains on the JP stocks since purchasing as well, but not fully positioned yet so a bit conflicted about having to pay higher prices. Also a bit afraid that it might snap back after its great run, which JP stocks tend to often do.
Gold
Surprisingly this is the biggest roller coaster of the month.
started the month at 4.3k, ran all the way up to 5.5k, now back down to 4.7k as I am writing this on Feb2.
In any case 4.3k to 4.7k is still great and I hope a new base can form around maybe the 4.6-5k levels.
Crypto
So as I’ve written in the monthly post, BTC keeps testing my patience and keeping me humble.
Back in Nov, when I thought 100k was the new support, it drops to the 90k range.
Just when I thought 90k would be nice support and bought the dip, it went into the 80k range.
Then a nice base was forming around the 86-88k range, over a period of 2+ months. seemed like 85k would be the line in the sand, of course reallocated more during the whole time.
And now down to 77k as of writing this, breaking down the base that it formed over the 2 months.
I just don’t know where it’s going to go next.
I really want to say 75k in the final line in the sand since that was the April tariff low.
But then I am just not confident that I can make the right calls now.
Anyway I will stick to the method and keep buying as it goes lower. BUT I’ve decided, at a slower pace.
So first I’ll allow it to be 2%+ underexposed before I add. (so if 38% allocation, I wait until <36%)
Then every time I add exposure, I will reduce the percentage allocation by 1% as well, and wait until price recovers before I add back the allocation.
Meanwhile the allocation will probably just goes to reducing leverage.
That would be a good play to reduce risks and manage leverage in times of stress. The overall return in the long run might be dampened a bit but it’s worth to keep sanity in these bear markets.
Also glad that BTC is in its own mini bear bubble while stocks and gold are performing well, so there is liquidity to rotate into the dip at least and I am not getting squeezed.
USDJPY
Also a crazy month with the rate check and sharp drop from 159 down to 153.
It’s since recovered a bit though with Warsh’s Fed chair nomination (which is what caused gold and BTC to free-fall these couple days)
Anyway thesis has not changed a bit, still super bullish on USDJPY (bearish on the yen), and meanwhile of course getting super cheap yen interest for the leverage, and saving a ton vs. borrowing USD.