So after some internal debate, I have finally decided to dip my toes into some ETH.

The story is compelling – stablecoins, financial tokenization, etc. which can really fuel ETH usage. And it’s different than the previous NFT hype I am pretty sure.

The risk is there for sure though … competitions (SOL, etc), and also fluctuating supply mechanism, unlike BTC 21M hard supply cap.

The Ethereum Story

I’ve taken quite a bit of time to study ETH in the past month, because I want to make sure I don’t invest in things that I don’t understand.

Also I am taking a “buying while learning” position, so starting out with a maybe 5-10% allocation from BTC into it first.

What I’ve understood so far is – first of all, the difference between BTC and ETH.

BTC has a fixed supply, super decentralized, and serves perfectly as a “store of value”.

On the other hand, ETH supply is fluid, is decentralized but still have a core team, and serves as the blockchain to build applications and protocols on.

The Bull Case

With stable coins and wall street tokenization, usage is forecasted to 10x in the next few years.

And Ethereum is the most stable blockchain network with zero downtime and outage since its inception.

It’s not as “good” as some other ones but it has reached a network effect that I think would be difficult for other networks to completely take over.

Meanwhile, its network effect might get so strong that it start crowding out other coins.

I am not too knowledgable on that front so I’ll leave it at that, but it should seem that ETH going double in price in the next 1-2 years might be achievable.

Also holding ETH comes with staking rewards which is a little benefit compared to BTC – so even if both grows at the same rate, ETH would still beat BTC with the rewards.

The Risks

From what I can see, the biggest risk is competition.

There are already better networks out there with faster speed, lower costs, etc.

ETH just turns out to be the most stable and with the most history.

If another network starts eating up its share and it goes into a downtrend, it can seriously underperform and I need to keep this risk in mind at all times.

Also the ETH foundation is still in quite a bit of control I think? and depending on the updates they make, the network can get better or worse … the last update I think did make it better and thats why it went from 2k to 4k in a matter of weeks.

My Conclusion for now

I think it has more potential than BTC, but also more possibility of downsides if things don’t play out well.

So big upsides, big downsides.

Since the bull case is strong and the upside I think outsize the risk, I have finally decided to start a small position and keep learning about it.

Also Tom Lee is really bullish on it – as far as taking the chairman position on an ETH treasury company. I do really trust the guy so on top of the research I’ve done on my own, I think it’s a good bet.

The main strategy and BTC thesis has not changed though, so it is going to be a small allocation – 5-10% for now. Maybe a little more later.

My medium term target is $8-10k by end of 2026. If it dips, I might add and probably won’t give up before reaching this level.

Although if it drops too much, then I might just hold and not buy, and wait it out to see if it plays back out, being mentally prepared for capital lockage and drag.

Also to be honest though, it’s not a fixed supply coin so it still has that unstable feeling to it. I’ll keep updating and educating myself, adjusting up or down or maybe remove the position altogether if it seems like the time down the road.