NEED TO REFINE the text
currently quite bullish with risk assets based on a few reasons.
also want to push leverage ratio higher due to previous post explanation
combination of bull market and pushing up leverage gets me both excited and a bit scared at the same time
The painful lesson in Feb 2025
had to buy, buy, buy with grandmas money
bought a lot of stuff at the top, especially got burned with TSLA.
7 months later, almost recovered to that “top” I bought and it’s still a losing position
So I am hesitant to lever up too fast and very slowly DCAing into stuff.
But lots of other buys that was “at the top” turned out to be great – mainly gold, and BTC did well too. GOOGL was another huge buy that took a bit of time but by Sept turned out those were great buys.
Why I should not fear “the top”
Tom Lee said in a podcast interview – don’t let the fear of buying the top makes you miss out on good ideas.
BTC was at 1k when he started recommending it in 2017. Any point of time during any “tops” would have been great buys in retrospect.
Plus it would be difficult to buy right at the exact top anyway, and if the asset gets a pullback, there is always rotation possible to “buy the dip”.
On the other hand, any uninvested cash, or unused leverage sitting there on the sideline, creates negative EV every moment it’s sitting there.
So I want to remind myself that, maybe be a little bit careful and do some DCAing, but don’t be too hesitant and miss out on the gains. More importantly, don’t overthink and make too many trades that probably end up costing excess mental energy.
Focus on good ideas and make sure I have conviction
“Good ideas” and “convictions” are the 2 most important keywords.
If I haven’t studied in depth and am not sure what I am investing in, I need to keep it a minimum. Don’t be afraid to miss out if the conviction is low, because remember it’s easy to lose.
But if on the other hand, the conviction is high, then don’t be afraid to go in, and if a high conviction bet turned out to be a losing bet, then so be it. So far TSLA has been a losing bet more or less, staying flat while other stocks and gold/btc is soaring. But I am okay with that, and I remain to have high conviction on TSLA despite everything.
5 years later maybe it would still turn out that it was a losing bet, but it would be a “good” bet anyway based on what I know now.
BTC as well … maybe it will not turn out to be what I predict. But it is one of my biggest bet and the reward just outweigh the risk so much that it’s worth going in deep.