Monthly Investment P/L: HK$+1.07M

HUGE recovery from the June losses.

BTC rallied HARD and gold did well too. Stocks is kind of flat but helped a bit as well.

USDJPY had the sharp drop end of July, but pretty much back in the slowly but surely back up mode again.

Current Portfolio:

HKD/USD cash: 3.06% (8.90%)

US/JP stocks: 55.69% (65.98%)

Bitcoin (USD): 45.61% (46.16%)

Gold (USD): 82.64% (94.75%)

YEN cash: 4.96% (5.23%)

JPY shorts: -91.96% (-121.03%)

—

So as the portfolio recovered, I just let the portfolio deleverage without doing much buying.

After all, I was getting really close to margin exhaustion and JPY shorts like -120% is only reserve for market bottoms that I want to at least not sell to hold over.

Now that it has recovered nicely, I’ve let it dropped back to -90%.

Once it gets back to around -80%, I will go back to the re-lever stages and start buying with any extra liquidity.

Again of course that will create a situation where I’ll buy more at the top than the bottom for sure, but it’s not a problem since it’s a long-term strategy and assets will always go up in the long term.

US+JP Equity

Felt pretty flat but still ended up contributing +130k for the month, so not too bad.

I guess the index and semi stocks consolidated but some of the ones I have actually went up.

Gold

As the debasement narrative kind of start coming back, of course gold recovered.

Gave back quite a bit toward the end with the Warsh Jackson Hole speech which people took as hawkish.

Anyway all I can say is, hawkish my ass, and they are mostly likely not going to hike rates in Sept, nor this year, which I’ve already detailed my logic in my previous posts.

Crypto

Kind of the same story as gold, except this was a HARD rally.

Rightfully so too I do think, since there has been seller exhaustion for a while now with BTC and crypto.

So any rally should be attracting lots of buyers and very few profit-takers.

Also I guess this super hard rally was caused by record-level short liquidations – which make sense with all those bears waiting for 50k or 40k in Oct with the 4-year cycle.

In any case I would find it hard to see that we don’t go back to a bull market in 2027 – with 4 year cycle aligning it, rates probably not going up, debasement trade alive and well, ISM still improving, and money printer probably needing to continue to run hot.

2025 bull market top was pretty muted and I’ve heard some theories too that the next bull won’t be as muted. Hopefully that could mean not just double the previous top but say maybe 3x, 4x – which would take BTC to 360k-480k before coming back down

Honestly though I’d be pretty happy with a 200-250k top as long as the next bear also stay muted and maybe make a 120k bottom.

USDJPY

This one was super interesting imo.

All the intervention, all the lip-service, coordination, etc. and USDJPY back to 160 again.

They have drawn the line around 162-163 so I guess it is still hard to cross it in the near future, but heck if it breaks, maybe all hell will break lose.

(because it means they have ran out of cards to play to keep a lid on it)

This yen margin short has been one of the most profitable strategies I’ve deployed for my investment, and seeing the current situation it seems even more solid as a long term play.

if DXY gets too strong, gold and BTC might suffer, but at least USDJPY will provide a cushion.

Meanwhile if USDJPY is weak, DXY is weak, thats a strong tailwind for gold and BTC.

And the interest differentials are closing, but ever so slowly. I am saving so much borrowing in JPY instead of USD, regardless of the price changes.

Only big danger of this is with a growth scare, but we haven’t had those since 2024 pretty much, and honestly moving forward I think they will be rare.

In any case with a real growth scare, gold would eventually soar anyway since rates will come down and gold is the flight to safety.

With enough decoupling with BTC from tech stocks, which seems to be happening slowly, maybe BTC can do well in that situation too.

So let’s see and I am open to moving some JPY shorts into USD shorts but for now I am definitely staying 100% JPY shorts.