Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-94.2k
Alright so against all the predictions I hear from those I follow, the FOMC did hike rates in Sept.
BTC actually rallied after the hike at some point. Gold was doing okay too but the 2yr and 10yr etc. just keeps climbing, so it ended the month down quite a bit.
All in all it was a really flat month. BTC/MSTR gained a bit but erased by the loss from gold.
In any case I am still bearish USD and bullish gold and BTC for sure.
Current Portfolio:
HKD/USD cash: 5.33% (3.06%)
US/JP stocks: 55.49% (55.69%)
Bitcoin (USD): 48.49% (45.61%)
Gold (USD): 80.16% (82.64%)
YEN cash: 4.98% (4.96%)
JPY shorts: -94.45% (-91.96%)
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Overall a pretty uneventful month.
BTC rallied so the allocation increased while I sold some MSTR. Bought up a little bull call spreads to “protect the upside”.
Bought some dip on the gold and decreased allocation although it just kept dipping.
Not much prediction on anything at this point actually, not sure how low gold would go, or if BTC can hold up the 80k range.
Just patiently waiting for gold and BTC to eventually rip, however many months it might take. As mentioned in the monthly review, I can afford to be patient now anyway.
I would imagine by 2030 everything would look very different.
My 2030 bullish case – gold 10k+, BTC 200-300k, and QQQ +50% from here.
In that bullish case, I should be able to reach HK$15-20M net worth by then, which is plenty of room to pretty much not worry about money from then on.
US+JP Equity
Absolutely no movement whatsoever, at least for my holdings.
Trimmed a bit of META on the muse news and rotated into QQQM.
Gold
Quite a bit downward pressure, I guess due to higher oil prices and higher rates.
Remain bullish for the medium to long term though and I think 8-10k gold by 2027-28 wouldn’t be surprising.
Central banks are making record buying, US debt is mounting with no resolution in sight, so I don’t see how gold can be suppressed for too long.
Crypto
Same deal with gold except it’s proved to be really strong despite the higher rates and stronger DXY.
If rate expectations do come down, I wonder if it can rally even harder and blow past 100k this year.
Anyway not ruling out the possibility of it retesting the lows, and trimming according to my rules so I am prepared either way.
USDJPY
Staying around the 157-158 level which is surprisingly weak given everything they’ve done to prop up the yen.
Make sense though because the USD is so strong, rates have moved up so much with the USD.
Interestingly I actually might want USDJPY to come down a bit – if it’s as a result of a weaker USD, so gold and BTC, as well as stocks, can get some tailwind there.
On the other hand, a strong dollar and strong USDJPY would just invite more interventions to artificially suppress it so I don’t feel like I can gain too much upside here.
Almost feels like no matter what happens it’s not getting past the 162-163 levels, although things could change quickly when it does change, we shall see where it goes.