Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-32,000
Was down -400k at one point, bounced back to flat to end the month.
Gold has held up well, stocks are kind of fine. Added Japanese stocks which performed well this month.
BTC still in the dumpster as usual, just patiently waiting.
Recap back 2.5 months ago in Nov2025, my guess was:
Let’s review the predictions and gather the current thoughts at this point.
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$+397,000
Phew what a roller coaster month to say the least!
Everything is moving up and down … well with BTC just down.
Anyway all in all still very nice return for the month. Feb is having a bad start but somehow I am still kind of confident it’d be an up month.
I realized I have developed a wider range of thesis for my investments and it’s probably a good idea to keep track of them by writing it out.
And my thinking would probably change over time too so it would be interesting to look back and see how it has evolved.
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-21,000
Was up >$200k due to a sharp rise in gold, but had since given back all of it and ended the month near zero.
Still made gains in gold but had some losses with BTC and stocks as well, overall not a great month for risk assets. No Santa rally.
The macro environment is still favoring a bull market though so I am not too concerned. Let’s see if Jan can be an up month.
So I’ve been doing year in review for business+life, but for investment this would be the first one.
Anyway let me review the kind of thoughts and predictions I had at the beginning of the year, and how things have played out.
Predictions within a 1-year timeframe is near impossible anyway but it’s still a fun activity, plus it’s useful to try to learn from history.
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-474000
Needless to say, a terrible month. Basically a mini-bear market for crypto and not great for stocks.
The main loss were from BTC and MSTR, -600k+ for the month. Stocks slightly down, and gold was up.
As mentioned in another post though I think this is a temporary correction and I expect a full recovery quickly.
It’s Nov 21 2025 now and BTC is at 86k, MSTR around $177.
BTC was -30% from its ATH of 126k less than 2 months ago in Sept.
MSTR’s ATH of $430 was made earlier in July, and now -60% 4 months later.
The strangest thing is, there isn’t too much bad news … in fact pretty much all headwind so far, outlined in my bull case post a couple months ago.
So what is going on?
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$108,000
Up for the month, but don’t really have that “up” feel because fell quite a bit from beginning of the month.
Gold exploded up to $4300+ but pulled back to around $4000 level. Stocks did quite okay.
Bitcoin hit ATH but quickly pulled back to 105-115k consolidation range. MSTR is in the dumpster so a lot of losses there.
USDJPY ran up quite a bit too though so all in all a slightly positive month.
I’ve been using the fear/greed gauge to sort of give myself an indication of overbought and oversold conditions.
And while very useful, Gold has basically shot up against gravity and broke right through $4000 as of today.
During this epic run up, it’s been in “extreme greed” level for a pretty long time, and I want to jot down my thoughts on this one.