I’ve been using the fear/greed gauge to sort of give myself an indication of overbought and oversold conditions.

And while very useful, Gold has basically shot up against gravity and broke right through $4000 as of today.

During this epic run up, it’s been in “extreme greed” level for a pretty long time, and I want to jot down my thoughts on this one.

Don’t underestimate “over bought”

There was a few month of consolidation at the 3.3k range before it broke out in August.

Now only short 2 months later it’s +20% and at $4k, with practically no pullback whatsoever.

If my memory served correctly, gold was at greed by the time it was $3.6k and extreme greed by $3.7-3.8k.

I looked at it with caution and expected a pullback or at least a consolidation around the $3.6-3.8k range.

Fortunately, I was levering up and therefore I did not sell. Rather I just bought a shit ton of BTC and MSTR to rebalance.

Turned out, it blew right through that range and now it’s passed $4k already.

Don’t fear “the top”

Again I think going back to what I said in the previous post.

If something make sense, don’t fear the top.

During this run up, I actually bought a little bit of gold, because there was a brief run up with BTC too and gold lagged behind for like 2-3 days.

I hesitated at 3.9k but figured if I don’t rebalance now, when do I do so. And I want to keep gold in the balance no matter what, for its defensive feature.

And now it caught right back up and BTC meanwhile is having a pullback, which allows me to get even more BTC for now.

The bigger story

I think the bigger story here is, fiat debasement is really accelerating hard.

Gold is running crazy of course.

But US stocks are at ATH. So are JP stocks, way past ATH.

HK stocks had the high back years ago but it’s at least back at ATH considering recent few years.

BTC has also just got past ATH before another small pullback. probably will test it again soon I think.

The melt up is accelerating and I think it’s just the beginning. Gold usually lead in a melt up.

And I am still using the fear/greed as my indicator on this – both US stocks and BTC are just floating between neutral and greed.

If they both reach greed-extreme greed and like gold they stay there for an extended period of time, this can be one of the craziest bull run in recent years.

Let’s see how it goes though and as always, need to keep being prudent especially amidst a bull run.