202504 – USDJPY + DXY update and predictions

Alright, so the USDJPY has fallen to 142 in the past few days (JPYHKD ~0.055)

This is basically the lowest since 2023 and has hit the low of the yen-carry unwind fiasco back in Aug2024.

So the big question is – is the weak yen over? Or is this just a temporary setback?

My conclusion is, it should be a temporary setback, and I will lay out the reasons. Will check back at this post in a few months or a year to see how it unfolds.

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Investment 20250401

Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$+33,000

Started out pretty brutal but recovered quite a bit toward the end.

Also gold is just having a huge bull run, so the gains there offset the loss from US stocks and bitcoin quite a bit.

In any case bitcoin is holding out pretty well and I already wrote another post lately on my new bullish-ness on that.

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Investment 20250301

Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-248,000

Super brutal month.

Started out okay as gold kept going up, and stocks and bitcoin held kind of steady although losing steam.

The last few days of the month though, huge sell-off, and down quite a bit this month.

I guess I did anticipate it though and let’s reflect more in this post.

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Big Feb sell-off and my reflection upon

So Feb 2025 was the worst month since the Aug 2024 “Ueda Shock” sell off.

Market sentiment is at its lowest, with fear index exact same as the lowest point in Aug 5th, 2024.

From looking at the previous fear cycle, it took less than 1 month to recover to “greed” and 3 months later back to “extreme greed”.

So I want to outline my prediction and outlook here for the next few months.

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The S-curve human progress, and my AI wave predictions

So I revisited an interesting AI post written by “wait but why”, back in 2015 (10 years ago).

I saw an interesting notion about how progress happens in S-curve – a new technology emerge, slow growth, then mass adoption, then matures.

From my lifetime, I can see how that played out in the internet boom.

And I think now the AI boom is unfolding in front of me. So I want to make some predictions here and see how right I am 5-10 years from now.

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Tipping my toes into options, and my thoughts so far

I had been thinking about adding the wheel option strategy into my long term investment, but the option size of minimum 100 shares has always been too big.

Anyway, I found out about the MAGS etf and that size is quite manageable, so I started dipping my toes into it.

Then I found that maybe doing bigger sized like NVDA or TSLA might be okay too, so I gave it a try.

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