So the US stock market has really rallied from its April lows, in apparently one of the biggest V-shape recovery in history, gaining 20%+ in just a couple months.

Of course my portfolio has benefitted greatly especially since I’ve bought all the way down since Feb.

However, looking back at these 3 months, most of my biggest positions have underperformed the market – even though tech stocks is suppose to outperform the market during run-ups.

Unfortunately that wasn’t the case and I’ll break it down more below.

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Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$181,000

Yet ANOTHER great month – same story … stocks continue their V-shaped recovery to ATHs, and bitcoin is at ATH after some consolidation.

Again same thing with gold … hasn’t really moved much but it isn’t moving down either.

The final day of the month marked some correction and I am -$80k on Aug2 morning as I’m writing this, but it’s a healthy correction I think.

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Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$167,000

Yet another great month – Stocks continue their V-shaped recovery, and bitcoin is slowly creeping back up.

Gold hasn’t really moved much but it isn’t moving down either, so that’s fine.

Nothing too spectacular but just another good month in a continued bull market.

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Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$255,000

A really good month – as the US stocks really recovered from their lows, with less tariff worries now compared to early April.

Gold hasn’t moved as a result but it has kept stable.

Bitcoin moved back to and broke above ATH although losing some steam this week back to 104k.

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Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$239,000

What another crazy month!

Huge selloff after liberation day, then recovered everything by the end of the month.

Gold and Bitcoin has moved up meanwhile though and made quite a lot of profit from there.

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Alright, so the USDJPY has fallen to 142 in the past few days (JPYHKD ~0.055)

This is basically the lowest since 2023 and has hit the low of the yen-carry unwind fiasco back in Aug2024.

So the big question is – is the weak yen over? Or is this just a temporary setback?

My conclusion is, it should be a temporary setback, and I will lay out the reasons. Will check back at this post in a few months or a year to see how it unfolds.

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Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$+33,000

Started out pretty brutal but recovered quite a bit toward the end.

Also gold is just having a huge bull run, so the gains there offset the loss from US stocks and bitcoin quite a bit.

In any case bitcoin is holding out pretty well and I already wrote another post lately on my new bullish-ness on that.

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Alright so first of all, I am adjusting up my bitcoin allocation from previous month’s 15%, up to 20% now.

It’s a huge adjustment so I want to spend a post to jot down my thought process and my strategy for this move.

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Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-248,000

Super brutal month.

Started out okay as gold kept going up, and stocks and bitcoin held kind of steady although losing steam.

The last few days of the month though, huge sell-off, and down quite a bit this month.

I guess I did anticipate it though and let’s reflect more in this post.

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So Feb 2025 was the worst month since the Aug 2024 “Ueda Shock” sell off.

Market sentiment is at its lowest, with fear index exact same as the lowest point in Aug 5th, 2024.

From looking at the previous fear cycle, it took less than 1 month to recover to “greed” and 3 months later back to “extreme greed”.

So I want to outline my prediction and outlook here for the next few months.

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